Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 3426
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 14
YX 3426 · ORD → CLT
departs 7:06 AM CT · arrives 10:29 AM ET
Forecast issued Mon 10:00 AM ET · 46h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 7%
Tue 10/13 7%
Wed 10/14
Thu 10/15 10%
Fri 10/16 10%
Sat 10/17 9%
Sun 10/18 10%
Odds over time
Arrive at CLT more than 15 minutes late?
13%
chance · ±1 pts
+2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
13%
Leave 15+ late
6%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
6.3d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at CLT more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Leave ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Arrive at CLT more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to CLT?
On time or early
86%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 200 ft, 0.4 in of rain forecast at ORD that day
↑
7am departures from ORD are often late
↑
CLT is prone to delays
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at CLT
Weather at each end
ORD (origin)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.25 in
CLT (destination)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.