Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 3461
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 14
YX 3461 · PIT → ORD
departs 9:02 AM ET · arrives 9:58 AM CT
Forecast issued Mon 5:00 PM ET · 40h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 9%
Tue 10/13 7%
Wed 10/14
Thu 10/15 16%
Fri 10/16 10%
Sat 10/17 9%
Sun 10/18 10%
Odds over time
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
22%
chance · ±2 pts
+6 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
22%
Leave 15+ late
11%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.4d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +6 pts in 24h
+6 pts
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Leave PIT more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Arrive at ORD more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to ORD?
On time or early
77%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 300 ft, 0.3 in of rain forecast at ORD that day
↑
Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late
↑
ORD is busy at that time
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
9am departures from PIT are usually not late
Weather at each end
PIT (origin)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling 400 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip 0.49 in
ORD (destination)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip 0.33 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.