Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 8, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 3461
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 15
YX 3461 · PIT → ORD
departs 8:36 AM ET · arrives 9:30 AM CT
Forecast issued Mon 11:00 AM ET · 70h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 8%
Tue 10/13 8%
Wed 10/14 19%
Thu 10/15
Fri 10/16 10%
Sat 10/17 9%
Sun 10/18 10%
Odds over time
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
13%
chance · ±1 pts
−2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
13%
Leave 15+ late
6%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.4d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Leave PIT more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Arrive at ORD more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to ORD?
On time or early
86%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late
↑
ORD is busy at that time
↑
Cloud base down to 600 ft forecast at ORD that day
↓
PIT usually runs smoothly
↓
YX's recent on-time record
Weather at each end
PIT (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 400 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.01 in
ORD (destination)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.