Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 3600
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 14
YX 3600 · YUL → ORD
departs 6:25 AM EDT · arrives 8:03 AM CT
Forecast issued Mon 11:00 AM ET · 43h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 15%
Tue 10/13 12%
Wed 10/14
Thu 10/15 17%
Fri 10/16 12%
Sat 10/17 13%
Sun 10/18 14%
Odds over time
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
20%
chance · ±2 pts
+3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
20%
Leave 15+ late
8%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.3d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
20%
Yes 20%
No 80%
Leave YUL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Arrive at ORD more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to ORD?
On time or early
78%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 200 ft, 0.2 in of rain forecast at ORD that day
↑
ORD is busy at that time
↑
This route's recent record
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
YUL (origin)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 2.33333 mi Precip 0.06 in
ORD (destination)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.25 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.