Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 3690
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 14
YX 3690 · CVG → ORD
departs 9:06 AM ET · arrives 9:49 AM CT
Forecast issued Mon 7:00 AM ET · 50h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 15%
Tue 10/13 9%
Wed 10/14
Thu 10/15 22%
Fri 10/16 16%
Sat 10/17 13%
Sun 10/18 19%
Odds over time
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
27%
chance · ±1 pts
+5 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
27%
Leave 15+ late
13%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.4d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
27%
Yes 27%
No 73%
Leave CVG more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Arrive at ORD more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to ORD?
On time or early
72%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 200 ft, 0.4 in of rain forecast at ORD that day
↑
Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late
↑
ORD is busy at that time
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Other factors
Weather at each end
CVG (origin)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 2,900 ft Visibility 8 mi Precip 0.31 in
ORD (destination)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.43 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.