Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 8, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 3690
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 15
YX 3690 · CVG → ORD
departs 8:59 AM ET · arrives 9:36 AM CT
Forecast issued Mon 1:00 PM ET · 68h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 20%
Tue 10/13 8%
Wed 10/14 22%
Thu 10/15
Fri 10/16 16%
Sat 10/17 13%
Sun 10/18 19%
Odds over time
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
31%
chance · ±0 pts
+10 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
31%
Leave 15+ late
13%
Arrive 1h+ late
8%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.4d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed +10 pts in 24h
+10 pts
31%
Yes 31%
No 69%
Leave CVG more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Arrive at ORD more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to ORD?
On time or early
68%
15–30 min late
17%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late
↑
Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 0.4 mi forecast at CVG that day
↑
ORD is busy at that time
↓
YX's recent on-time record
↓
Other factors
Weather at each end
CVG (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 0 mi Precip 0.12 in
ORD (destination)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 800 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.