Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4387
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 14
YX 4387 · DCA → DTW
departs 2:54 PM ET · arrives 4:41 PM ET
Forecast issued Mon 11:00 AM ET · 52h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 34%
Tue 10/13 10%
Wed 10/14
Thu 10/15 15%
Fri 10/16 17%
Sun 10/18 13%
Odds over time
Arrive at DTW more than 15 minutes late?
13%
chance · ±0 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
13%
Leave 15+ late
11%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.6d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DTW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed – in 24h
–
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Leave DCA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed – in 24h
–
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Arrive at DTW more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed – in 24h
–
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to DTW?
On time or early
86%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
2pm departures from DCA are often late
↑
DCA is prone to delays
↑
Cloud base down to 200 ft forecast at DTW that day
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
YX's recent on-time record
Weather at each end
DCA (origin)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
DTW (destination)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip 0.06 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.