Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4414
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 14
YX 4414 · LGA → DTW
departs 5:04 PM ET · arrives 7:07 PM ET
Forecast issued Mon 3:00 PM ET · 50h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 46%
Tue 10/13 16%
Wed 10/14
Thu 10/15 39%
Fri 10/16 42%
Sat 10/17 18%
Sun 10/18 22%
Odds over time
Arrive at DTW more than 15 minutes late?
21%
chance · ±2 pts
−1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
21%
Leave 15+ late
22%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.7d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DTW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
21%
Yes 21%
No 79%
Leave LGA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Arrive at DTW more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to DTW?
On time or early
79%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
5pm departures from LGA are often late
↑
LGA is prone to delays
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA
Weather at each end
LGA (origin)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling 4,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
DTW (destination)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip 0.07 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.