Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 8, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4414
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 15
YX 4414 · LGA → DTW
departs 5:13 PM ET · arrives 7:23 PM ET
Forecast issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · 69h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 44%
Tue 10/13 16%
Wed 10/14 21%
Thu 10/15
Fri 10/16 42%
Sat 10/17 18%
Sun 10/18 22%
Odds over time
Arrive at DTW more than 15 minutes late?
30%
chance · ±5 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
30%
Leave 15+ late
26%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.7d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DTW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed – in 24h
–
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Leave LGA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 18% · changed – in 24h
–
26%
Yes 26%
No 74%
Arrive at DTW more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed – in 24h
–
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to DTW?
On time or early
70%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
5pm departures from LGA are often late
↑
Cloud base down to 300 ft forecast at DTW that day
↑
Arrivals into DTW at that hour are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA
↓
Other factors
Weather at each end
LGA (origin)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
DTW (destination)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.09 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.