Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4469
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 14
YX 4469 · MYR → DCA
departs 11:55 AM ET · arrives 1:32 PM ET
Forecast issued Sun 2:00 PM ET · 70h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 39%
Mon 10/12 19%
Tue 10/13 9%
Wed 10/14
Thu 10/15 11%
Fri 10/16 14%
Sat 10/17 8%
Odds over time
Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?
8%
chance · ±0 pts
−6 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
8%
Leave 15+ late
6%
Arrive 1h+ late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
6.5d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed −6 pts in 24h
−6 pts
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Leave MYR more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed −5 pts in 24h
−5 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Arrive at DCA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to DCA?
On time or early
91%
15–30 min late
<1%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
<1%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into DCA at that hour are often late
↑
This flight has been late 22% of the time recently
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at DCA
Weather at each end
MYR (origin)
Gusts 7 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 3 mi Precip none
DCA (destination)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.