Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4470
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 14
YX 4470 · DCA → PIT
departs 12:45 PM ET · arrives 2:04 PM ET
Forecast issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · 45h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 13%
Tue 10/13 9%
Wed 10/14
Thu 10/15 11%
Fri 10/16 14%
Sat 10/17 10%
Odds over time
Arrive at PIT more than 15 minutes late?
9%
chance · ±1 pts
+3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
9%
Leave 15+ late
8%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
6.5d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at PIT more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Leave DCA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Arrive at PIT more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to PIT?
On time or early
90%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 400 ft forecast at PIT that day
↑
12pm departures from DCA are often late
↑
DCA is prone to delays
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at DCA
Weather at each end
DCA (origin)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
PIT (destination)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling 400 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip 0.49 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.