Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4475
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 14 Tomorrow
YX 4475 · BOS → ROC
departs 9:10 PM ET · arrives 10:51 PM ET
Forecast issued Mon 11:00 PM ET · 46h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 39%
Wed 10/14
Thu 10/15 25%
Fri 10/16 33%
Sun 10/18 21%
Mon 10/19 17%
Odds over time
Arrive at ROC more than 15 minutes late?
22%
chance · ±3 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
22%
Leave 15+ late
24%
Arrive 1h+ late
7%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.9d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ROC more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Leave BOS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 12% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
24%
Yes 24%
No 76%
Arrive at ROC more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to ROC?
On time or early
77%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
9pm departures from BOS are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
This flight has been late 21% of the time recently
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
YX's recent on-time record
Weather at each end
BOS (origin)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 0.5 mi Precip 0.01 in
ROC (destination)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 800 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.