YX 4475 · BOS → ROC

departs 9:26 PM ET · arrives 11:14 PM ET

Forecast issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · 25h before departure

Arrive at ROC more than 15 minutes late?

45% chance · ±1 pts +2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to ROC?

On time or early
55%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
18%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 2 mi forecast at BOS that day

↑ 9pm departures from BOS are often late

↑ BOS is prone to delays

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Other factors

Weather at each end

BOS (origin) Gusts17 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility2 mi Precip0.06 in

ROC (destination) Gusts22 kt Ceiling3,500 ft Visibility1 mi Precip0.06 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 4475 · BOS → ROC

Odds over time

How late will it get to ROC?