Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4511
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 14
YX 4511 · SDF → DCA
departs 11:28 AM ET · arrives 1:21 PM ET
Forecast issued Sun 5:00 PM ET · 66h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Mon 10/12 15%
Tue 10/13 9%
Wed 10/14
Thu 10/15 12%
Fri 10/16 17%
Odds over time
Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?
8%
chance · ±0 pts
−4 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
8%
Leave 15+ late
8%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
6.5d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Leave SDF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Arrive at DCA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to DCA?
On time or early
91%
15–30 min late
2%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at SDF
↑
Arrivals into DCA at that hour are often late
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at DCA
Weather at each end
SDF (origin)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 8,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.02 in
DCA (destination)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.