Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4515
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 14
YX 4515 · HXD → DCA
departs 10:55 PM CST · arrives 12:48 PM ET
Forecast issued Sun 3:00 PM ET · 68h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 46%
Mon 10/12 19%
Tue 10/13 9%
Wed 10/14
Thu 10/15 12%
Fri 10/16 16%
Sat 10/17 9%
Odds over time
Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?
9%
chance · ±0 pts
−5 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
9%
Leave 15+ late
8%
Arrive 1h+ late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
6.5d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed −5 pts in 24h
−5 pts
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Leave HXD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Arrive at DCA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to DCA?
On time or early
90%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into DCA at that hour are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
HXD is busy at that time
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
YX's recent on-time record
Weather at each end
HXD (origin)
Gusts 7 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 3 mi Precip none
DCA (destination)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.