Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4556
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 14
YX 4556 · YYZ → LGA
departs 3:29 PM EDT · arrives 5:17 PM ET
Forecast issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 52h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 51%
Tue 10/13 19%
Wed 10/14
Thu 10/15 36%
Fri 10/16 44%
Sat 10/17 23%
Sun 10/18 25%
Odds over time
Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?
19%
chance · ±1 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
19%
Leave 15+ late
15%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.6d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 12% · changed – in 24h
–
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Leave YYZ more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed – in 24h
–
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Arrive at LGA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed – in 24h
–
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to LGA?
On time or early
80%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
LGA is prone to delays
↑
Arrivals into LGA at that hour are often late
↑
This route's recent record
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
YYZ (origin)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 5,467 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
LGA (destination)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 2,800 ft Visibility 6 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.