Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4607
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 14
YX 4607 · LGA → ATL
departs 1:35 PM ET · arrives 4:15 PM ET
Forecast issued Sun 5:00 PM ET · 69h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 50%
Mon 10/12 25%
Tue 10/13 14%
Wed 10/14
Thu 10/15 26%
Fri 10/16 30%
Odds over time
Arrive at ATL more than 15 minutes late?
10%
chance · ±5 pts
−18 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
10%
Leave 15+ late
13%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.6d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ATL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed −18 pts in 24h
−18 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Leave LGA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed −14 pts in 24h
−14 pts
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Arrive at ATL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to ATL?
On time or early
89%
15–30 min late
2%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
1pm departures from LGA are often late
↑
This flight has been late 36% of the time recently
↑
LGA is prone to delays
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA
Weather at each end
LGA (origin)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 10,000 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip none
ATL (destination)
Gusts 6 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.