Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4676
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 14 Tomorrow
YX 4676 · BOS → MSN
departs 7:54 PM ET · arrives 9:51 PM CT
Forecast issued Mon 11:00 PM ET · 45h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 46%
Wed 10/14
Thu 10/15 26%
Fri 10/16 32%
Sat 10/17 26%
Sun 10/18 28%
Mon 10/19 24%
Odds over time
Arrive at MSN more than 15 minutes late?
28%
chance · ±4 pts
+2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
28%
Leave 15+ late
22%
Arrive 1h+ late
10%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.8d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MSN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Leave BOS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Arrive at MSN more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MSN?
On time or early
72%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
7pm departures from BOS are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Arrivals into MSN at that hour are often late
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
YX's recent on-time record
Weather at each end
BOS (origin)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 0.5 mi Precip 0.01 in
MSN (destination)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 2,200 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.