Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 8, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4676
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 15
YX 4676 · BOS → MSN
departs 7:53 PM ET · arrives 10:00 PM CT
Forecast issued Mon 11:00 PM ET · 69h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 46%
Wed 10/14 28%
Thu 10/15
Fri 10/16 32%
Sat 10/17 26%
Sun 10/18 28%
Mon 10/19 24%
Odds over time
Arrive at MSN more than 15 minutes late?
22%
chance · ±4 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
22%
Leave 15+ late
22%
Arrive 1h+ late
7%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.8d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MSN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed – in 24h
–
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Leave BOS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 17% · changed – in 24h
–
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Arrive at MSN more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed – in 24h
–
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MSN?
On time or early
77%
15–30 min late
0%
30 min–1 hour late
15%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
7pm departures from BOS are often late
↑
Cloud base down to 600 ft, visibility down to 2 mi forecast at MSN that day
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at BOS
↓
YX's recent on-time record
Weather at each end
BOS (origin)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
MSN (destination)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 0.24 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.