Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 5699
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 14
YX 5699 · JFK → DCA
departs 8:30 AM ET · arrives 10:00 AM ET
Forecast issued Mon 7:00 AM ET · 50h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 32%
Tue 10/13 16%
Wed 10/14
Thu 10/15 18%
Fri 10/16 20%
Sat 10/17 18%
Sun 10/18 17%
Odds over time
Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?
11%
chance · ±1 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
11%
Leave 15+ late
10%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.4d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Leave JFK more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Arrive at DCA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to DCA?
On time or early
88%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This flight has been late 39% of the time recently
↑
8am departures from JFK are often late
↑
JFK is prone to delays
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at JFK
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
JFK (origin)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling 2,500 ft Visibility 6 mi Precip none
DCA (destination)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.