Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 5747
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 14
YX 5747 · DCA → LGA
departs 1:30 PM ET · arrives 2:53 PM ET
Forecast issued Mon 7:00 AM ET · 54h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 30%
Tue 10/13 30%
Wed 10/14
Thu 10/15 39%
Fri 10/16 45%
Sat 10/17 25%
Sun 10/18 23%
Odds over time
Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?
28%
chance · ±3 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
28%
Leave 15+ late
22%
Arrive 1h+ late
11%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.6d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed – in 24h
–
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Leave DCA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed – in 24h
–
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Arrive at LGA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed – in 24h
–
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to LGA?
On time or early
72%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This flight has been late 31% of the time recently
↑
LGA is prone to delays
↑
1pm departures from DCA are often late
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA
Weather at each end
DCA (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
LGA (destination)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 2,800 ft Visibility 6 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.