Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 5811
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 14
YX 5811 · DCA → LGA
departs 11:00 AM ET · arrives 12:22 PM ET
Forecast issued Mon 9:00 PM ET · 38h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 38%
Tue 10/13 12%
Wed 10/14
Thu 10/15 25%
Fri 10/16 28%
Sat 10/17 15%
Sun 10/18 14%
Odds over time
Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?
14%
chance · ±2 pts
+2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
14%
Leave 15+ late
11%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.5d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Leave DCA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Arrive at LGA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to LGA?
On time or early
85%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This flight has been late 33% of the time recently
↑
LGA is prone to delays
↑
11am departures from DCA are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at DCA
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA
Weather at each end
DCA (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
LGA (destination)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 4,400 ft Visibility 8 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.