Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 5837
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 14
YX 5837 · BOS → CLT
departs 3:04 PM ET · arrives 5:33 PM ET
Forecast issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · 43h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 22%
Tue 10/13 35%
Wed 10/14
Thu 10/15 22%
Fri 10/16 27%
Sat 10/17 19%
Sun 10/18 15%
Odds over time
Arrive at CLT more than 15 minutes late?
19%
chance · ±6 pts
−1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
19%
Leave 15+ late
16%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.6d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at CLT more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Leave BOS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Arrive at CLT more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to CLT?
On time or early
80%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
3pm departures from BOS are often late
↑
Arrivals into CLT at that hour are often late
↑
BOS is prone to delays
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at CLT
Weather at each end
BOS (origin)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 0.5 mi Precip 0.08 in
CLT (destination)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.