Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 5841
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 14
YX 5841 · DCA → BNA
departs 3:28 PM ET · arrives 4:33 PM CT
Forecast issued Mon 4:00 AM ET · 60h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 26%
Tue 10/13 15%
Wed 10/14
Thu 10/15 21%
Fri 10/16 28%
Sat 10/17 10%
Sun 10/18 14%
Odds over time
Arrive at BNA more than 15 minutes late?
11%
chance · ±0 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
11%
Leave 15+ late
10%
Arrive 1h+ late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
6.6d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed – in 24h
–
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Leave DCA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed – in 24h
–
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Arrive at BNA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed – in 24h
–
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to BNA?
On time or early
88%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
3pm departures from DCA are often late
↑
Arrivals into BNA at that hour are often late
↑
DCA is prone to delays
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at DCA
Weather at each end
DCA (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
BNA (destination)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.