Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 8, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

ENDEAVOR · FLIGHT 9E 5474 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 15

9E 5474 · PIT → MSP

departs 3:58 PM ET · arrives 5:20 PM CT

Forecast issued Tue 2:00 AM ET · 62h before departure

Arrive at MSP more than 15 minutes late?

24% chance · ±1 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to MSP?

On time or early
76%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 27 kt, cloud base down to 600 ft, visibility down to 2 mi forecast at MSP that day

↑ Arrivals into MSP at that hour are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ MSP usually runs smoothly

↓ Cloud base down to 600 ft forecast at PIT that day

Weather at each end

PIT (origin) Gusts13 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility4 mi Precip0.02 in

MSP (destination) Gusts27 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility2 mi Precip0.04 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

9E 5474 · PIT → MSP

Odds over time

How late will it get to MSP?