Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 8, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 2584 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 15

AA 2584 · DCA → SRQ

departs 8:59 AM ET · arrives 11:42 AM ET

Forecast issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · 65h before departure

Arrive at SRQ more than 15 minutes late?

18% chance · ±1 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SRQ?

On time or early
81%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ 8am departures from DCA are often late

↑ DCA is prone to delays

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SRQ

↓ Cloud base down to 1,200 ft forecast at DCA that day

Weather at each end

DCA (origin) Gusts12 kt Ceiling1,200 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SRQ (destination) Gusts15 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2584 · DCA → SRQ

Odds over time

How late will it get to SRQ?