Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 8, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 2633 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 15

AA 2633 · DCA → ORD

departs 7:42 AM ET · arrives 8:46 AM CT

Forecast issued Mon 11:00 AM ET · 69h before departure

Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?

24% chance · ±1 pts +2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to ORD?

On time or early
75%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ This flight has been late 24% of the time recently

↑ Cloud base down to 600 ft forecast at ORD that day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DCA

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

Weather at each end

DCA (origin) Gusts12 kt Ceiling2,700 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

ORD (destination) Gusts14 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2633 · DCA → ORD

Odds over time

How late will it get to ORD?