Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 8, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 3131 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 15

AA 3131 · ORD → MSP

departs 12:03 PM CT · arrives 1:44 PM CT

Forecast issued Mon 6:00 PM ET · 67h before departure

Arrive at MSP more than 15 minutes late?

39% chance · ±6 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to MSP?

On time or early
60%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
21%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 600 ft, visibility down to 2 mi forecast at ORD that day

↑ This flight has been late 38% of the time recently

↑ 12pm departures from ORD are often late

↓ Other factors

↓ MSP usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts12 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility2 mi Precip0.23 in

MSP (destination) Gusts12 kt Ceiling1,400 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.01 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 3131 · ORD → MSP

Odds over time

How late will it get to MSP?