Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 8, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 864 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 15

AA 864 · CLT → PHL

departs 2:50 PM ET · arrives 4:35 PM ET

Forecast issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · 67h before departure

Arrive at PHL more than 15 minutes late?

37% chance · ±4 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to PHL?

On time or early
62%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
14%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ Arrivals into PHL at that hour are often late

↑ 2pm departures from CLT are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHL

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

CLT (origin) Gusts6 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

PHL (destination) Gusts12 kt Ceiling7,333 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 864 · CLT → PHL

Odds over time

How late will it get to PHL?