Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 8, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
JETBLUE · FLIGHT B6 1047
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 15
B6 1047 · PHL → SJU
departs 11:43 AM ET · arrives 3:37 PM AT
Forecast issued Mon 5:00 PM ET · 67h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 37%
Tue 10/13 27%
Wed 10/14 25%
Thu 10/15
Fri 10/16 35%
Sat 10/17 32%
Sun 10/18 32%
Odds over time
Arrive at SJU more than 15 minutes late?
33%
chance · ±3 pts
+2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
33%
Leave 15+ late
31%
Arrive 1h+ late
10%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.5d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SJU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 26% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
33%
Yes 33%
No 67%
Leave PHL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 25% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
31%
Yes 31%
No 69%
Arrive at SJU more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SJU?
On time or early
67%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
B6's recent on-time record
↑
This flight has been late 26% of the time recently
↑
SJU is prone to delays
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at PHL
↓
Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
PHL (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 5,000 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip none
SJU (destination)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 2,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.03 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.