Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 8, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
JETBLUE · FLIGHT B6 2494
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 15
B6 2494 · DCA → ACK
departs 3:25 PM ET · arrives 4:56 PM ET
Forecast issued Mon 5:00 PM ET · 70h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 56%
Wed 10/14 25%
Thu 10/15
Fri 10/16 44%
Sat 10/17 30%
Sun 10/18 31%
Odds over time
Arrive at ACK more than 15 minutes late?
37%
chance · ±5 pts
−7 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
37%
Leave 15+ late
37%
Arrive 1h+ late
16%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.6d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ACK more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 31% · changed −7 pts in 24h
−7 pts
37%
Yes 37%
No 63%
Leave DCA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 32% · changed −5 pts in 24h
−5 pts
37%
Yes 37%
No 63%
Arrive at ACK more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to ACK?
On time or early
63%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
7%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This flight has been late 32% of the time recently
↑
B6's recent on-time record
↑
3pm departures from DCA are often late
↓
Cloud base down to 1,200 ft forecast at DCA that day
↓
ACK usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
DCA (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 1,200 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
ACK (destination)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.