Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 8, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 1226
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 15
DL 1226 · CLE → MSP
departs 4:42 PM ET · arrives 5:51 PM CT
Forecast issued Mon 10:00 PM ET · 67h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 17%
Tue 10/13 15%
Wed 10/14 16%
Thu 10/15
Fri 10/16 20%
Sun 10/18 18%
Odds over time
Arrive at MSP more than 15 minutes late?
26%
chance · ±5 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
26%
Leave 15+ late
22%
Arrive 1h+ late
7%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.7d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MSP more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed – in 24h
–
26%
Yes 26%
No 74%
Leave CLE more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed – in 24h
–
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Arrive at MSP more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed – in 24h
–
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MSP?
On time or early
73%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Arrivals into MSP at that hour are often late
↑
4pm departures from CLE are often late
↓
MSP usually runs smoothly
↓
Other factors
Weather at each end
CLE (origin)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 400 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.06 in
MSP (destination)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 700 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip 0.03 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.