Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 8, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 1456
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 15
DL 1456 · MSP → IND
departs 3:12 PM CT · arrives 5:52 PM ET
Forecast issued Mon 10:00 PM ET · 66h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 13%
Tue 10/13 8%
Wed 10/14 9%
Thu 10/15
Fri 10/16 23%
Sun 10/18 21%
Odds over time
Arrive at IND more than 15 minutes late?
27%
chance · ±5 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
27%
Leave 15+ late
18%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.7d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at IND more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed – in 24h
–
27%
Yes 27%
No 73%
Leave MSP more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 12% · changed – in 24h
–
18%
Yes 18%
No 82%
Arrive at IND more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed – in 24h
–
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to IND?
On time or early
72%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
3pm departures from MSP are often late
↑
Other factors
↑
Cloud base down to 300 ft, visibility down to 2 mi forecast at IND that day
↓
MSP usually runs smoothly
↓
IND usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
MSP (origin)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 700 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip 0.03 in
IND (destination)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 0.13 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.