Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 8, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 1402
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 15
F9 1402 · DEN → BNA
departs 10:35 AM MT · arrives 2:18 PM CT
Forecast issued Mon 7:00 PM ET · 66h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 26%
Tue 10/13 20%
Wed 10/14 28%
Thu 10/15
Fri 10/16 21%
Sat 10/17 19%
Sun 10/18 26%
Odds over time
Arrive at BNA more than 15 minutes late?
40%
chance · ±2 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
40%
Leave 15+ late
39%
Arrive 1h+ late
16%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.5d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 24% · changed – in 24h
–
40%
Yes 40%
No 60%
Leave DEN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed – in 24h
–
39%
Yes 39%
No 61%
Arrive at BNA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed – in 24h
–
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to BNA?
On time or early
60%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
12%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Gusts to 34 kt, cloud base down to 400 ft, visibility down to 0.3 mi, 0.3 in of rain forecast at DEN that day
↑
F9's recent on-time record
↑
Arrivals into BNA at that hour are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at BNA
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
Weather at each end
DEN (origin)
Gusts 34 kt Ceiling 700 ft Visibility 0.5 mi Precip 0.27 in
BNA (destination)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.