Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 8, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 1577
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 15
F9 1577 · PHL → RSW
departs 8:52 AM ET · arrives 11:59 AM ET
Forecast issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · 61h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 37%
Tue 10/13 19%
Thu 10/15
Fri 10/16 24%
Sun 10/18 22%
Odds over time
Arrive at RSW more than 15 minutes late?
30%
chance · ±2 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
30%
Leave 15+ late
17%
Arrive 1h+ late
8%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.4d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at RSW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 25% · changed – in 24h
–
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Leave PHL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed – in 24h
–
17%
Yes 17%
No 83%
Arrive at RSW more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed – in 24h
–
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed – in 24h
–
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to RSW?
On time or early
69%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
F9's recent on-time record
↑
This flight has been late 24% of the time recently
↑
PHL is prone to delays
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
Other factors
Weather at each end
PHL (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 7,333 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
RSW (destination)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.10 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.