Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 8, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 3206
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 15
F9 3206 · DEN → IAH
departs 6:07 AM MT · arrives 9:33 AM CT
Forecast issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 68h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 15%
Tue 10/13 12%
Wed 10/14 13%
Thu 10/15
Fri 10/16 14%
Sat 10/17 12%
Sun 10/18 10%
Odds over time
Arrive at IAH more than 15 minutes late?
15%
chance · ±3 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
15%
Leave 15+ late
14%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.3d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at IAH more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Leave DEN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Arrive at IAH more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to IAH?
On time or early
84%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
F9's recent on-time record
↑
Cloud base down to 400 ft forecast at DEN that day
↑
DEN is busy at that time
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
6am departures from DEN are usually not late
Weather at each end
DEN (origin)
Gusts 22 kt Ceiling 400 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.19 in
IAH (destination)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.