Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 8, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

DENVER AIR CONNECTION · FLIGHT KG 4210 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 15

KG 4210 · DEN → AIA

departs 11:56 AM MT · arrives 1:10 PM MT

Forecast issued Mon 9:00 PM ET · 65h before departure

Arrive at AIA more than 15 minutes late?

30% chance · ±8 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to AIA?

On time or early
67%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
4%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 34 kt, cloud base down to 700 ft, visibility down to 0.5 mi, 0.4 in of rain forecast at DEN that day

↑ Gusts to 28 kt, cloud base down to 500 ft, visibility down to 1 mi, 0.4 in of rain forecast at AIA that day

↑ 11am departures from DEN are often late

↓ AIA usually runs smoothly

↓ Arrivals into AIA at that hour are usually not late

Weather at each end

DEN (origin) Gusts37 kt Ceiling700 ft Visibility0.5 mi Precip0.30 in

AIA (destination) Gusts31 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility1 mi Precip0.54 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

KG 4210 · DEN → AIA

Odds over time

How late will it get to AIA?