Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 8, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

DENVER AIR CONNECTION · FLIGHT KG 640 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 15

KG 640 · RIW → DEN

departs 7:14 PM MT · arrives 8:15 PM MT

Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 47h before departure

Arrive at DEN more than 15 minutes late?

37% chance · ±4 pts +2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to DEN?

On time or early
61%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
15%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
3%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 37 kt, cloud base down to 400 ft, visibility down to 0.7 mi, 0.4 in of rain forecast at DEN that day

↑ Arrivals into DEN at that hour are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Gusts to 25 kt forecast at RIW that day

↓ 7pm departures from RIW are usually not late

Weather at each end

RIW (origin) Gusts24 kt Ceiling1,800 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.05 in

DEN (destination) Gusts38 kt Ceiling400 ft Visibility2 mi Precip0.27 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

KG 640 · RIW → DEN

Odds over time

How late will it get to DEN?