Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 8, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3627
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 15
MQ 3627 · DCA → LIT
departs 5:09 PM ET · arrives 7:00 PM CT
Forecast issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · 69h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 28%
Tue 10/13 16%
Wed 10/14 17%
Thu 10/15
Fri 10/16 32%
Sat 10/17 14%
Sun 10/18 21%
Odds over time
Arrive at LIT more than 15 minutes late?
22%
chance · ±3 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
22%
Leave 15+ late
22%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.7d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LIT more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 18% · changed – in 24h
–
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Leave DCA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed – in 24h
–
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Arrive at LIT more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed – in 24h
–
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to LIT?
On time or early
77%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
5pm departures from DCA are often late
↑
This flight has been late 28% of the time recently
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at DCA
↓
Other factors
Weather at each end
DCA (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 2,700 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
LIT (destination)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.