Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 8, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3630
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 15
MQ 3630 · LIT → DCA
departs 6:00 AM CT · arrives 9:29 AM ET
Forecast issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · 63h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 8%
Tue 10/13 7%
Wed 10/14 5%
Thu 10/15
Fri 10/16 9%
Sat 10/17 7%
Sun 10/18 7%
Odds over time
Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?
7%
chance · ±0 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
7%
Leave 15+ late
6%
Arrive 1h+ late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
3%
6%
9%
12%
6.3d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Leave LIT more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Arrive at DCA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to DCA?
On time or early
92%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
<1%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
MQ's recent on-time record
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
6am departures from LIT are usually not late
Weather at each end
LIT (origin)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
DCA (destination)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 1,200 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.