Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 8, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3813
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 15
MQ 3813 · GNV → MIA
departs 6:02 AM ET · arrives 7:25 AM ET
Forecast issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · 62h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 9%
Tue 10/13 6%
Wed 10/14 5%
Thu 10/15
Fri 10/16 11%
Sat 10/17 8%
Sun 10/18 8%
Odds over time
Arrive at MIA more than 15 minutes late?
6%
chance · ±0 pts
−3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
6%
Leave 15+ late
6%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
3%
6%
9%
12%
6.3d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MIA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Leave GNV more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Arrive at MIA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MIA?
On time or early
93%
15–30 min late
0%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
MIA is prone to delays
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MIA
Weather at each end
GNV (origin)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 2 mi Precip none
MIA (destination)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.