Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 8, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3824
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 15
MQ 3824 · XNA → DCA
departs 7:00 AM CT · arrives 10:39 AM ET
Forecast issued Mon 3:00 PM ET · 65h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 16%
Tue 10/13 10%
Wed 10/14 16%
Thu 10/15
Fri 10/16 12%
Sat 10/17 9%
Sun 10/18 10%
Odds over time
Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?
16%
chance · ±1 pts
+4 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
16%
Leave 15+ late
10%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
6.3d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Leave XNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Arrive at DCA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to DCA?
On time or early
84%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 200 ft forecast at XNA that day
↑
MQ's recent on-time record
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
This flight has been late 8% of the time recently
Weather at each end
XNA (origin)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.18 in
DCA (destination)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 1,200 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.