Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 8, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 4169
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 15
MQ 4169 · DCA → MYR
departs 5:49 PM ET · arrives 7:41 PM ET
Forecast issued Mon 11:00 PM ET · 67h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 16%
Wed 10/14 18%
Thu 10/15
Fri 10/16 29%
Sat 10/17 16%
Sun 10/18 22%
Mon 10/19 20%
Odds over time
Arrive at MYR more than 15 minutes late?
25%
chance · ±3 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
25%
Leave 15+ late
22%
Arrive 1h+ late
11%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.7d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MYR more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed – in 24h
–
25%
Yes 25%
No 75%
Leave DCA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 18% · changed – in 24h
–
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Arrive at MYR more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed – in 24h
–
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MYR?
On time or early
74%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
5pm departures from DCA are often late
↑
This flight has been late 33% of the time recently
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Other factors
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MYR
Weather at each end
DCA (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 1,200 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.01 in
MYR (destination)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 5 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.