Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 8, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 4295
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 15
MQ 4295 · DCA → ATL
departs 8:38 AM ET · arrives 10:48 AM ET
Forecast issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · 65h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 16%
Tue 10/13 13%
Wed 10/14 7%
Thu 10/15
Fri 10/16 13%
Sat 10/17 11%
Sun 10/18 12%
Odds over time
Arrive at ATL more than 15 minutes late?
10%
chance · ±1 pts
−2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
10%
Leave 15+ late
11%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.4d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ATL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Leave DCA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Arrive at ATL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to ATL?
On time or early
90%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
8am departures from DCA are often late
↑
DCA is prone to delays
↑
This flight has been late 19% of the time recently
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at ATL
↓
Other factors
Weather at each end
DCA (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 1,200 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
ATL (destination)
Gusts 4 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.