Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 8, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

PSA · FLIGHT OH 5144 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 15

OH 5144 · DCA → ROC

departs 9:07 AM ET · arrives 10:34 AM ET

Forecast issued Mon 11:00 AM ET · 70h before departure

Arrive at ROC more than 15 minutes late?

17% chance · ±1 pts −3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to ROC?

On time or early
82%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 32% of the time recently

↑ OH's recent on-time record

↑ DCA is prone to delays

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DCA

↓ ROC usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

DCA (origin) Gusts12 kt Ceiling2,700 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

ROC (destination) Gusts11 kt Ceiling4,400 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OH 5144 · DCA → ROC

Odds over time

How late will it get to ROC?