Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 8, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

PSA · FLIGHT OH 5172 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 15

OH 5172 · CVG → DCA

departs 5:20 PM ET · arrives 7:09 PM ET

Forecast issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · 65h before departure

Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?

46% chance · ±3 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to DCA?

On time or early
53%
15–30 min late
17%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
12%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 0.1 mi forecast at CVG that day

↑ Arrivals into DCA at that hour are often late

↑ This flight has been late 37% of the time recently

↓ Cloud base down to 1,200 ft forecast at DCA that day

↓ CVG usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

CVG (origin) Gusts12 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility0.1 mi Precip0.14 in

DCA (destination) Gusts12 kt Ceiling1,200 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.01 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OH 5172 · CVG → DCA

Odds over time

How late will it get to DCA?