Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 8, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

PSA · FLIGHT OH 5238 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 15

OH 5238 · DSM → DCA

departs 5:58 AM CT · arrives 9:32 AM ET

Forecast issued Mon 5:00 PM ET · 62h before departure

Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?

15% chance · ±1 pts +3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to DCA?

On time or early
84%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ OH's recent on-time record

↑ This flight has been late 23% of the time recently

↑ Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 1 mi, 0.3 in of rain forecast at DSM that day

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ 5am departures from DSM are usually not late

Weather at each end

DSM (origin) Gusts13 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility1 mi Precip0.26 in

DCA (destination) Gusts12 kt Ceiling1,200 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OH 5238 · DSM → DCA

Odds over time

How late will it get to DCA?