Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 8, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

PSA · FLIGHT OH 5268 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 15

OH 5268 · MCI → DCA

departs 10:16 AM CT · arrives 1:57 PM ET

Forecast issued Tue 6:00 PM ET · 41h before departure

Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?

25% chance · ±3 pts +3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to DCA?

On time or early
74%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 0.7 in of rain forecast at MCI that day

↑ Arrivals into DCA at that hour are often late

↑ OH's recent on-time record

↓ MCI usually runs smoothly

↓ 10am departures from MCI are usually not late

Weather at each end

MCI (origin) Gusts24 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility2 mi Precip0.73 in

DCA (destination) Gusts11 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.12 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OH 5268 · MCI → DCA

Odds over time

How late will it get to DCA?