Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 8, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

PSA · FLIGHT OH 5282 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 15

OH 5282 · HPN → DCA

departs 11:00 AM ET · arrives 12:19 PM ET

Forecast issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · 67h before departure

Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?

26% chance · ±2 pts −5 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to DCA?

On time or early
73%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 33% of the time recently

↑ HPN is prone to delays

↑ Arrivals into DCA at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at HPN

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

Weather at each end

HPN (origin) Gusts13 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

DCA (destination) Gusts12 kt Ceiling1,200 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OH 5282 · HPN → DCA

Odds over time

How late will it get to DCA?