Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 8, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

PSA · FLIGHT OH 5313 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 15

OH 5313 · DCA → ILM

departs 1:37 PM ET · arrives 3:15 PM ET

Forecast issued Mon 7:00 PM ET · 67h before departure

Arrive at ILM more than 15 minutes late?

19% chance · ±2 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to ILM?

On time or early
80%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 25% of the time recently

↑ 1pm departures from DCA are often late

↑ OH's recent on-time record

↓ Cloud base down to 1,200 ft forecast at DCA that day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ILM

Weather at each end

DCA (origin) Gusts12 kt Ceiling2,700 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

ILM (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OH 5313 · DCA → ILM

Odds over time

How late will it get to ILM?